The Latino Vote: Declining Numbers, Soaring Stakes in the Southwest

If you’re watching politics in the Southwest and not talking about the Latino vote, you’re missing the cactus for the spines. The numbers don’t lie: Latino voter participation is slipping, and that should have every campaign consultant sweating through their bolo tie. But here’s the kicker—this decline isn’t inevitable, and the opportunity for a political comeback is wide open. The question is: who’s willing to actually listen and adapt?

The Data: Not Just a Blip

Let’s get straight to the point. In New Mexico, Arizona, and across the Southwest, Latino voter turnout has dropped in recent cycles—even as the population grows. According to Pew Research Center, Latino voter turnout nationally in 2022 was just 40%, down from 53.7% in 2020 (Pew: 2022 Latino Voter Turnout). In battleground states, the numbers are even more sobering. In Arizona, for example, Latino turnout dropped by about 8% between 2020 and 2022 (Arizona Center for Empowerment).

Why the Slide? The Messaging Miss

Let’s be blunt: politicians love to talk about the “Latino vote” as if it’s a monolith. It’s not. The issues that matter most—jobs, education, healthcare, immigration—aren’t being addressed with real nuance. Instead, campaigns rely on tired slogans and the occasional mariachi band at a rally. Voters notice.

Research from UCLA’s Latino Policy & Politics Institute shows that Latino voters are increasingly frustrated with both parties’ failure to address their everyday economic concerns (UCLA LPPI: Latino Voters 2024). When candidates talk past these issues, turnout suffers.

The Opportunity: Speak to the Pocketbook—and the Heart

Here’s where things get spicy: the party that figures out how to connect with Latino voters on real issues—wages, healthcare, education, and yes, immigration—stands to gain big. In the Southwest, where Latinos make up a huge share of the electorate, even a small uptick in engagement can swing elections.

The Cactus Crossfire podcast hosts, Sisto Abeyta and Eddie Ableser, don’t mince words about this. They argue that authentic, community-driven outreach is the only way forward. Forget the generic Spanish-language ad buys—what’s needed is a year-round presence in neighborhoods, real conversations at kitchen tables, and candidates who actually look and sound like the communities they want to represent.

The Risks of Ignoring the Shift

Ignore this trend at your own peril. The 2024 election saw a notable shift among Latino men toward Republican candidates, especially in border states (NBC News: Latino Voters 2024). If Democrats want to hold the line in places like Arizona and New Mexico, they’ll have to do more than trot out familiar faces every four years. Republicans, meanwhile, are making gains by focusing on economic and family values—issues that resonate deeply.

What Needs to Change?

• Start Early, Stay Late: Outreach can’t start six months before Election Day. It needs to be ongoing.

• Get Specific: Talk about local schools, wages, health clinics—not just national headlines.

• Show Up: Voters want to see candidates in their communities, not just in TV ads.

• Listen: The best messaging comes from listening sessions, not focus groups.

Bottom Line: The Ball’s in Your Court

The decline in Latino voter turnout is a warning sign, not a death sentence. For campaigns willing to put in the work, the opportunity is massive. But the era of taking Latino voters for granted is over. The next election cycle will belong to the party that treats these voters not as a demographic, but as the backbone of the Southwest.

Want to hear more?

Check out the full discussion on the Cactus Crossfire podcast, where Sisto Abeyta and Eddie Ableser break down what it’ll take to turn the tide.